Powered by Monte Carlo simulation

From Excel assumptions to thousands of possible financial outcomes—in minutes.

Your Excel model, unchanged — upload it, give each assumption a range, and 10,000 scenarios run in seconds. No implementation project, no new modelling language.

// your Excel, unchanged  ·  live in days, not months  ·  every run in seconds
Chance of hitting budget Live
40.8% P50 €4.68M
4,080 of 10,000 runs clear the budget line.
10,000 simulated scenarios − → +
Your Excel, unchanged 10,000 scenarios per run Answer in minutes Same math banks price risk with Built in Amsterdam
Try it — this is the real engine

Drag a range. Watch the odds move.

Three assumptions from a demo plan, budget €4.83M FY EBITDA. Every drag below re-runs 10,000 scenarios in your browser — the same engine the Studio runs on your workbook.

01 · Set the ranges
Navy tick = the plan value. Drag the handles.
02 · How it runs
// draw one value per driver from your ranges // respect the correlations — here, price ↔ volume ρ −0.4 // recompute the model through your own formulas // count where 10,000 runs land against budget
10,000 runs · — ms
03 · Read the answer
chance of hitting budget
P50 P10 budget €4.83M
Run it on your numbers Open the Studio // your workbook works the same way — upload, range, run
What you get

Software, setup, and the numbers to feed it.

One subscription, three parts. Most customers start with a two-week implementation and keep the commodity feed running.

01 Software

ScenarioCast Studio

Upload your Excel. Give each driver a range. 10,000 scenarios later: the chance of hitting budget, the median, the downside — and an Excel report back. Your file is never overwritten.

Open the Studio →
02 Consulting

Implementation

We turn your budget file into a driver model with your team — logic read-back you can check, a ranges workshop with the owners, and the first board answer in two weeks. Fixed fee, agreed up front.

How rollout works →
03 Data

Commodity assumptions

Maintained ranges for oil, gas, power, steel, freight and FX — reviewed monthly against forward curves and consensus, delivered as a Drivers sheet that drops straight into your model.

See the ranges →
Why ranges

One number is a promise. A range is a plan.

01

The budget you sign has odds. See them first.

Before you commit a number to the board, know how often your own model clears it. If it's 40%, better to know in October than in July.

02

Stop debating line items. Two drivers carry the year.

The impact ranking ends the forecast meeting: firm up the two assumptions that move the number, stop arguing about the five that don't.

03

Math your board already trusts.

The same Monte Carlo method banks and insurers have priced risk with for decades — running on your own workbook, read back in plain language.

The same plan, two ways
What the board pack says FY EBITDA €4.83M One cell. No odds attached.
What your model actually says 41% chance · P50 €4.68M Downside 1-in-10: €3.83M. Two drivers carry 64% of the swing.
Same workbook, same formulas. The difference is admitting the assumptions are ranges.
Where it lands

Built for the meeting where the number gets defended.

Manufacturing · United States

Steel, freight and tariffs move weekly. Your price list doesn't.

Commodity ranges feed straight into landed cost and margin odds. Know what a 5–10% oil move does to the year before you reprice — and show the evidence.

P10 margin −8.3% · plan holds · reprice threshold known
Talk through your case →
Public company

Guidance is a range. Give one you can defend.

Set guidance where your model says the odds are, not where last year's habit puts it. Know the probability on the midpoint before the earnings call, not after.

guidance midpoint at P55 · downside floor stated
Talk through your case →
Budget season · PE-backed

Negotiate the target with the odds on the table.

Owners want stretch. Show what stretch costs: every +5% on the target moves the probability, and the model says by how much. Agree a number both sides can sign.

target +5% → odds 61% → 44% · trade made explicit
Talk through your case →
Rollout

Live in two weeks. Your file stays yours.

Day 1–2

Intake

Your budget workbook, as-is. We map the outputs and the owners. You give: one file, one hour.

Day 3–5

Driver model

We rebuild the logic as a driver tree. You check the read-back, not the formulas.

Day 6–9

Ranges workshop

Ninety minutes with the owners: every driver gets a low and a high they'd accept. Commodities come pre-ranged.

Day 10

First run

10,000 scenarios and the board one-pager: the odds, the median, the downside, the two drivers that matter.

The full rollout plan →
Book a demo

Bring your budget.
Leave with a probability.

Twenty minutes, your numbers or ours, run live — no deck. If your model fits the template, you'll see your own odds on the call.

Book a 20-minute demo Open the Studio first
hello@scenariocast.com Amsterdam · CET Replies within one business day